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The Rabbit Hole · Part X

Beyond the chat box

Chat was the trailer. Pictures, voices, video, and a body that shows up for an 8-hour shift.

~85 min·October 2026·Presented by Michael Gibbs
The card

Two halves. Same trick, different stakes.

01
Same trick, different tokens
Images, voices and video are the Part IV prediction loop with different chunks. Diffusion, in one slide.
10m
02
Media in the business
What it is good for today, what it is bad at, and who owns what comes out.
15m
03
Fakes, fraud and the law
Arup, voice clones, why detection does not scale and process does. Provenance, honestly. The laws, as of now.
20m
04
Physical AI
A robot is an agent with kinematics. The bodies, not the keynotes. Where it lands first. The autonomy you already use.
30m
05
Use it Monday
A disclosure rule, three fraud controls, and one test for any robot pitch.
10m
Rule for today: if a picture, a voice or a robot costs you money when it is wrong, the question is not “how good is it”. It is “what checks it”.

Eighty-five minutes, five sections. The first three are generative media, the fourth is physical AI, the fifth is what to do on Monday. The two halves share one idea: the model guesses, something else has to check. In media the check is a process (who approves the image, who calls back on the payment). In robots the check is physics, a safety standard and a fence.

01

Same trick, new tokens

Part IV: a model predicts the next chunk of text. Swap the chunk for a patch of pixels or a slice of sound. That is this section.

Pixels · sound · frames

Section one gives the non-expert one honest mental model for image, audio and video generation, and shows that the “describe, generate, edit” workflow is a loop, not magic.

01 · Same trick, different tokens

Diffusion: learn to un-blur, then start from pure noise.

CODE / TOOL
Add noise

Take millions of real images. Add a little static, then more, in many small steps, until each is pure noise. This part is mechanical.

MODEL
Learn to un-blur

The model is trained to take a slightly noisy image and predict the slightly cleaner one. Billions of times. That is the whole skill.

IN / OUT
Noise + a caption

A field of random static, plus your text turned into numbers the model can condition on.

MODEL
Denoise, 20–50 times

Apply the “undo one step” skill 20 to 50 times. Each pass makes the static look a bit more like “a red bicycle in the rain”.

IN / OUT
A new image

Not retrieved from anywhere. Not a collage. A plausible picture that matches the caption, statistically.

Where the analogy breaks

The text model picks one token at a time. A diffusion model refines the whole image at once, many times. Different mechanics, same idea: predict what plausibly comes next, trained on a lot of examples.

Why it matters to you

It is prediction, not lookup. So it cannot be “accurate” about a thing it never saw, the way Part IV’s text model cannot. And the training data question (whose pictures?) is the legal question in section two.

Text models guess the next word. Image models guess what was under the static. Same trick.

Add noise step by step, then take it away

Try it
The forward process (adding noise on a schedule) is real and runs on the pixels you see. The reverse step is a simulation: a real model predicts the noise with billions of weights; here the noise is known, so it can be subtracted.

Part IV gave you one mechanism for language models: given the text so far, score every possible next chunk, pick one, repeat. Image generation uses a different mechanism that is the same idea wearing a different coat. The method most products use is called diffusion, and the clearest description is still the 2020 paper by Ho, Jain and Abbeel. Training works like this. Take millions of real images. Add a small amount of random static to each, then a bit more, and more, over many small steps, until the picture is indistinguishable from noise. That part is mechanical; no model is involved. Now train a model on one narrow skill: given a slightly noisy image, predict the slightly cleaner version. Do that billions of times across every step of every image. The model never learns to draw; it learns to un-blur. At use time you run that skill backwards. Start from a field of pure random static, attach your caption (converted into numbers the model can condition on), and apply the un-blur skill twenty to fifty times. Each pass pulls the static a little closer to something that matches the caption. What comes out is a new picture. It is not retrieved from a library and it is not a collage of pieces; it is a statistically plausible image given the training data and the words. The analogy to text breaks in one place: a language model commits to one token at a time, while diffusion refines the whole canvas at once, repeatedly. The lesson transfers intact. It is prediction, not lookup, so it cannot be accurate about things it never saw, and the question of whose pictures it saw is the legal question in the next section. Audio and video use the same family of methods, with sound and frames in place of pixels.

Sources (1)
  1. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.11239v1
01 · Same trick, different tokens

One workflow, four media: describe, generate, edit, repeat.

The chunk it predictsDescribe → generateEdit in placeWhere it struggles
ImagePatches of pixels, un-blurred from noiseCaption in, picture out, in secondsMask a region, say what should be thereExact text, counts, hands, logos, “the same person again”
Audio / voiceSlices of sound, or sound tokensScript in, speech out; or a 30-second sample in, that voice outChange one sentence; keep the voiceNames, numbers, emphasis; it sounds confident when wrong
VideoFrames, as patches, plus soundPrompt in, 5 to 20 seconds out, in minutesExtend, re-light, swap a backgroundPhysics, continuity across shots, anything longer than a clip
Text (Part IV)Tokens, one at a timePrompt in, prose outRewrite a paragraphFacts it never saw; it guesses

Whatever the medium: a plausible version, not a correct one. The right-hand column is where your checks go.

Every generative media product you will be shown does the same three things. You describe, it generates, you edit, and you go round again. The table lines the four media up so the pattern is visible. For images the chunk is a patch of pixels and the generation is the un-blurring from the last slide; editing means masking a region (marking the part you want changed) and describing what should be there instead. For audio the chunk is a slice of sound. There are two common jobs: text-to-speech, where a script becomes spoken audio, and voice cloning, where a short sample of a real person’s voice, often under a minute, becomes a model that will say anything in that voice. Hold onto that sentence; it is the whole of section three. For video the chunk is a frame treated as patches, plus the sound track, and the products in late 2026 produce clips of seconds to a few tens of seconds in minutes; editing means extending a clip, changing the lighting or swapping a background. The right-hand column is the one to read twice. Image models still struggle with exact text, counts, hands and the same character appearing consistently across shots; OpenAI’s April 2026 image release lists dense typography, technical labels, arrows and diagrams as areas it improved and still recommends human review for. Voice models mispronounce names and numbers and sound confident doing it. Video models get physics and continuity wrong. These are not bugs to wait out. They are where prediction meets the need for correctness, which is exactly where Part IV told you the text model fails. The clip lengths and quality will be different by the time you read this. The shape of the workflow, and the column where your checks belong, will not.

Sources (1)
  1. https://www.fonearena.com/blog/480750/openai-chatgpt-images-2-0-features.html
02

Media in the business

What generative media is good for this quarter, what it is bad at, and who owns what comes out. One slide of law; not legal advice.

Useful · risky · owned?

Section two is the practical half of generative media: the jobs it already does well in a business, the ones it still does badly, and the state of the law on ownership, which is clearer than most people think.

02 · Media in the business

Six jobs it already does well. Each ends with a human.

Marketing variants

One approved hero image, fifty sizes, backgrounds and seasonal versions. Coca-Cola has run AI-made holiday ads two years running; viewers spotted trucks with extra wheels. Approve every frame.

Product mock-ups

A mug with your logo on a kitchen table, before you have made the mug. For the pitch deck and the listing draft, not for the spec sheet.

Voice-over and dubbing

A training video dubbed into twenty languages in the presenter’s own voice. ElevenLabs shipped this in 2023. A native speaker checks the names and numbers.

Transcription

Meetings, calls, interviews. Whisper (OpenAI, 2022) is open source and good. It also invents sentences on silence and noise; keep the audio, check the quotes.

Synthetic training data

Need 10,000 photos of a cracked widget to train a defect detector, and you have 40? Generate the rest, then test on real ones only.

Accessibility

Alt-text for every image, audio versions of every document, captions on every video. Cheap now. Nobody checks these, so write the rule that someone samples them.

The Part III pattern holds: the model drafts, a person approves anything that carries your name.

Here is what generative media does well enough today that ordinary businesses already use it, with the catch attached to each. Marketing variants: take one approved image and produce fifty sizes, backgrounds and seasonal versions in an afternoon. Coca-Cola has run AI-generated holiday advertising two years running, with a 2025 remake of its 1995 “Holidays Are Coming” spot made with an AI studio; viewers noticed trucks with extra wheels and misplaced axles, and the company says engagement was high anyway. Both things are true, and the lesson is that someone must approve every frame. Product mock-ups: a convincing photograph of a product that does not exist yet, fine for a pitch, not for a specification. Voice-over and dubbing: ElevenLabs launched dubbing into more than twenty languages in October 2023, keeping the original speaker’s voice; a native speaker still has to check names and numbers. Transcription is the quiet success. OpenAI’s Whisper, released as open source in September 2022 and trained on 680,000 hours of audio, made good speech-to-text nearly free. It also hallucinates: an Associated Press investigation in October 2024 found researchers reporting invented sentences, including a non-existent medication, often on pauses or background noise, while a clinical tool built on it was transcribing millions of medical visits and deleting the source audio. Keep the audio. Check the quotes. Synthetic training data: when you have forty photos of a defect and need ten thousand, generate the rest and test only on real ones. Accessibility: alt-text, audio versions and captions are now nearly free, which means nobody checks them, so write the rule that someone samples them. In every case the Part III pattern holds: the model drafts, a human approves what carries your name.

Sources (4)
  1. https://www.eweek.com/news/coca-cola-ai-ads/
  2. https://venturebeat.com/ai/elevenlabs-introduces-ai-dubbing-translating-video-and-audio-into-20-languages
  3. https://openai.com/index/whisper/
  4. https://fortune.com/2024/10/26/openai-transcription-tool-whisper-hallucination-rate-ai-tools-hospitals-patients-doctors
02 · Media in the business

What it is bad at. Not “yet”: structurally.

Bad at, by design

  • Precise text in an image: a label, a price, a legal line. It draws what text looks like.
  • The same character or product across ten shots. Each image is a fresh guess.
  • Counts and arithmetic: six fingers, four wheels on one side, 13 items in a “dozen”.
  • Anything that must match reality: a floor plan, a wiring diagram, a map, a chart of your numbers.

Fine, with a check

  • Backgrounds, lighting, mood, style, variations.
  • A voice saying a script, if a human listens once.
  • A transcript, if the audio is kept and quotes are verified.
  • A first cut of a video, if nobody ships the first cut.

Never, full stop

  • A real person’s face or voice without written consent. Section three explains why this is now a legal line, not a taste line.
  • Evidence: a “photo” of a site, a defect, an incident.
  • Anything presented as a record of something that happened.

Rule of thumb: if a wrong pixel costs money, generate the mood and let a person, or code, supply the facts.

The weaknesses are the strengths seen from the other side, and most are structural rather than temporary. A diffusion model draws what text looks like; it has no spelling. Products improved this a great deal through 2025 and 2026, and the vendors’ own release notes still recommend human review of labels, diagrams and dense type. Consistency across shots is harder still: each image is a fresh sample from noise, so “the same mug, same angle, ten scenes” needs either a trained custom model or a lot of discarding. Counting is the famous one. Six fingers, extra wheels, thirteen in a dozen: the model has no arithmetic, only a sense of what hands and trucks tend to look like. And anything that has to match reality, a floor plan, a wiring diagram, a chart of your actual revenue, is simply the wrong job; Part III said let code calculate, and the same applies to pixels. The middle column is where most business value lives: mood, style, variation, a voice reading a script, a transcript, a first cut. Each is fine if a specific person checks it once, and most of these checks take minutes. The right column is not about quality. A real person’s face or voice without written consent is now a legal line in the EU, in most US states and under a federal statute, as section three shows. Generated “evidence” of a site, a defect or an incident is fraud whether or not anyone meant it to be, and a generated image presented as a record of an event is the thing the disclosure rules exist to stop. The rule of thumb: if a wrong pixel would cost money, generate the mood and let a person or code supply the facts.

Sources (1)
  1. https://www.fonearena.com/blog/480750/openai-chatgpt-images-2-0-features.html
02 · Media in the business

One campaign run. Notice where the facts come from.

HUMAN
Brief

Marketing writes: product, audience, three formats, brand rules, what must not appear.

CODE / TOOL
Facts

Price, SKU, legal line and logo pulled from the product system. Not typed, not generated.

MODEL
Generate

40 background and layout variants from one approved product photo. No text drawn by the model.

CODE / TOOL
Compose

Template code overlays the real price, logo and legal text. Pixel-exact, every time.

MODEL
Pre-check

A vision model flags extra limbs, wrong colours, brand-rule breaches. A filter, not a judge.

HUMAN
Approve + label

A named person picks six, signs off, and the AI-assisted label goes on. Credentials attached (slide 18).

Model: the mood

Backgrounds, lighting, composition, variety. The things that are allowed to differ between runs.

Code: the facts

Price, logo, legal copy, aspect ratios. The things that must be identical every time, so they never pass through a model.

Human: the name on it

Approval, consent for any real person, and the disclosure decision. The parts a court or a customer will ask about.

Model generatesCode / tool actsHuman approves

Illustrative run. Tools, counts and roles are invented; the split is the point.

This is an invented run; the tools, counts and job titles are made up, and the division of labour is the point. Marketing writes a brief: the product, the audience, three formats, the brand rules, and a list of things that must not appear. Then, before anything is generated, code fetches the facts. The price, the SKU, the legal line and the logo file come from the product system. They are not typed into a prompt and they are never drawn by the model. The model’s job is the mood: forty variants of background, lighting and layout built around one approved product photograph, with an explicit instruction that it renders no text. Template code then composes the final images, overlaying the real price, the real logo and the real legal copy at pixel-exact positions, the same way every time. A vision model does a first pass, flagging extra limbs, wrong colours and breaches of the brand rules; it is a filter that reduces the pile, not a judge that approves anything. Finally a named person picks six, signs them off, decides whether the campaign needs an AI-assisted label (section three), and the content credentials are attached. Read the three cards and you will see Part III’s support agent again. The model handles what is allowed to vary. Code handles what must be identical. The human handles whatever a court or a customer will later ask about: approval, consent for any real face or voice, and the disclosure decision. Teams that let the model draw the price learn this the expensive way.

02 · Media in the business

Who owns what comes out? In the US: mostly nobody.

Prompts alone: no copyright

US Copyright Office, Jan 2025: “works entirely generated by AI are not copyrightable.” Prompts, however detailed or however many times refined, “do not control the way that idea is expressed.” Anyone may copy a prompt-only image.

An AI cannot be the author

Thaler v. Perlmutter, D.C. Circuit, 18 Mar 2025: a machine cannot be an author; human authorship is required to register. The artwork “A Recent Entrance to Paradise” stays unregistered.

Your human part is protectable

Where your own work is perceptible in the output, or you creatively select and arrange AI material, that part can be yours. Using AI for ideas or edits does not taint the whole work. Case by case.

What that means in practice

A competitor can lift your prompt-only hero image. Your logo, your copy and your layout are still yours. Keep the brief, the edits and the selection record: they are the evidence of the human part.

Not legal advice. The durable rule: the more a human shaped it, the more of it you own.

First the caveat, on the slide and in the book: this is not legal advice, the law differs by country, and it is moving. What follows is the position in the United States as of October 2026, which is clearer than most people expect. On 29 January 2025 the US Copyright Office published the second part of its report on artificial intelligence, on copyrightability. Its conclusion: “human authorship is a bedrock of copyrightability, and thus works entirely generated by AI are not copyrightable.” It specifically rejected the argument that detailed prompts, or many rounds of refining prompts, amount to authorship: prompts “may reflect a user’s mental conception or idea, but they do not control the way that idea is expressed.” Seven weeks later, on 18 March 2025, the D.C. Circuit decided Thaler v. Perlmutter, affirming that an AI system cannot be the author of a work and that human authorship is required to register; Dr Thaler had listed his “Creativity Machine” as sole author of an image, and lost at every level. The Office was equally clear about what remains protectable. Where a human-made work is perceptible in the output, where a human creatively selects and arranges AI-generated material, or where AI was used for ideas and edits to a human work, the human contribution can be protected, decided case by case. In practice: a competitor can lift your prompt-only hero image and you have no copyright claim; your logo, copy and layout are still yours; and the brief, the edits and the record of what you chose are the evidence of the human part, so keep them. Other jurisdictions differ; the UK, for instance, has a statutory provision for computer-generated works that is itself under review. The durable rule travels: the more a human shaped it, the more of it you own.

Sources (2)
  1. https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/02/copyright-office-publishes-report
  2. https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/03/appellate-court-affirms-human-authorship
02 · Media in the business

The training-data cases. Checked October 2026; they move.

The questionWhere it stands
Bartz v. Anthropic (US, authors)Is training on books fair use? Is downloading pirated copies?Jun 2025: training on lawfully bought books ruled fair use; pirated copies not. Settled for $1.5B, final approval 21 Jul 2026. Class of ~482,000 books.
NYT v. OpenAI & Microsoft (US)Training on news and outputs that reproduce itActive. Consolidated with other publishers. OpenAI ordered to produce 20M de-identified chat logs. Fair-use summary judgment briefed Sept–Nov 2026; trial not set.
Getty v. Stability AI (UK)Is a model trained on Getty’s photos an “infringing copy”?High Court, 4 Nov 2025: Getty lost the main claims; the model holds no copies. Limited trade-mark wins on watermarks. Appeal on the legal question allowed; hearing expected by end 2026.
Getty v. Stability AI (US)Same facts, US lawRefiled in N. D. California Aug 2025. Trade-mark and unfair-competition claims proceed (Apr 2026). Jury trial listed for Jan 2028.

Read across: “bought it and trained” is winning; “pirated it” is losing; “output copies the input” is still open. Plan for all three.

The ownership question on the last slide was about outputs. The cases on this slide are about inputs: whose work went into the training data, and with what permission. Four matter most, as of October 2026, and all four will have moved by the time you read this. Bartz v. Anthropic is the one with a number. In June 2025 Judge Alsup ruled that training a language model on books Anthropic had lawfully bought and scanned was fair use, and that downloading pirated copies from shadow libraries was not. The pirated-copies claim went to a class of roughly 482,000 books; Anthropic settled for $1.5 billion, with preliminary approval in September 2025 and final approval on 21 July 2026. New York Times v. OpenAI and Microsoft, filed in December 2023, is the big one for text and for outputs: the Times alleges both that training on its articles infringed and that ChatGPT reproduces them. It has survived a motion to dismiss, been consolidated with other publishers’ suits, and in November 2025 a magistrate ordered OpenAI to produce a sample of 20 million de-identified chat logs. Summary judgment on fair use was being briefed through November 2026; no trial date. Getty Images v. Stability AI is the image case, and the UK verdict in November 2025 surprised people: Getty dropped its main copyright claims after accepting there was no evidence training happened in the UK, and lost the remaining argument that the model itself was an “infringing copy”, because the model stores no copies. It won narrow trade-mark findings about reproduced watermarks. The court allowed an appeal on the point of law. The US version, refiled in California in August 2025, proceeds on trade-mark claims with a trial listed for January 2028. Read across and a pattern appears: buying and training is winning, pirating is losing, and “the output copied the input” is still open.

Sources (5)
  1. https://www.authorsalliance.org/2025/09/28/bartz-v-anthropic-settlement-gets-preliminary-approval-key-takeaways/
  2. https://www.authorsalliance.org/2026/07/21/bartz-v-anthropic-settlement-receives-final-approval/
  3. https://ailawsuittracker.com/cases/new-york-times-v-openai/
  4. https://www.lw.com/en/insights/getty-images-v-stability-ai-english-high-court-rejects-secondary-copyright-claim
  5. https://legalclarity.org/getty-images-v-stability-ai-high-court-ruling-and-appeal/
02 · Media in the business

Indemnities: real, conditional, not a licence to relax.

What the big vendors promise

They will defend you, if…

  • Microsoft (Sept 2023), OpenAI “Copyright Shield” (Nov 2023), Adobe, Getty, Shutterstock, Amazon, IBM: we pay the legal costs if a customer is sued over our tool’s output.
  • Paid business tiers only. OpenAI’s covers the API and Enterprise, not free or Plus.
  • Microsoft’s conditions, in writing: run the content filters, keep the copyright metaprompt on, test your app for reproducing third-party content and keep the report.
  • Break a condition, or modify the output into something infringing yourself, and the promise is off.
What they do not cover

Still yours

  • A real person’s likeness or voice. Consent is your job.
  • Your own trade-mark, defamation and consumer-law exposure.
  • Outputs from the free tier, a model you fine-tuned, or a tool you bolted on.
  • The reputational cost. The indemnity pays lawyers, not customers.

The rule: paid tier, filters on, no real faces or voices without consent, keep the brief.

Because the training-data cases are unresolved, the large vendors have offered something concrete: an indemnity. Microsoft announced its Copilot Copyright Commitment in September 2023; OpenAI followed with Copyright Shield in November 2023; Adobe, Getty, Shutterstock, Amazon and IBM made similar promises. The shape is the same: if a paying business customer is sued over copyright in the tool’s output, the vendor defends and pays. Three things make it less than it sounds. It applies to business tiers; OpenAI’s covers the developer platform and ChatGPT Enterprise, not the free or Plus consumer products. It is conditional, and the conditions are written down. Microsoft’s published terms require that the content filters be switched on in the required mode, that a “protected material” system prompt be in place, and that the customer test its own application for reproducing third-party content and keep a report of the testing to hand over if a claim is made; output retroactively flagged by an asynchronous filter is excluded. Break a condition, or take the output and edit it into something infringing yourself, and the promise is off. And it covers copyright. It does not cover a real person’s face or voice, which is a consent question and increasingly a statutory one; it does not cover your trade-mark, defamation or consumer-law exposure; and it does not cover the reputational cost, because the indemnity pays lawyers, not customers. The practical rule for a business is short. Use a paid tier. Leave the filters on. No real faces or voices without written consent. Keep the brief and the edit history, because that is both your copyright evidence and your indemnity evidence. Then the promise is worth something.

Sources (2)
  1. https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/legal/cognitive-services/openai/customer-copyright-commitment
  2. https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/06/openai-promises-to-defend-business-customers-against-copyright-claims/amp
Discussion · 02

Where is generated media already in your business?

  1. Which images, voices or videos went out last quarter undeclared as AI-made? Who approved them?
  2. Where does a price, a name or a legal line pass through a model instead of a template?
  3. Which of your tools is on a free tier, and so outside every indemnity you think you have?
  4. If a competitor lifted your best AI-made image tomorrow, what could you honestly do?

The first question usually produces an awkward silence. Most organisations are already shipping generated media; the discipline arrives after the first embarrassment. Better before.

03

Fakes and fraud

The same models that dub your training video will clone your CFO. Detection does not scale. Process does. The laws caught up in 2025 and 2026.

Call back · two people

Section three is the one to keep if you keep nothing else. A voice clone needs under a minute of audio; your CFO has hours of it on YouTube. The defence is not a detector. It is a process you can write down on Monday.

03 · Fakes, fraud and the law

The numbers. Floors, not totals.

$25M

Lost by engineering firm Arup, Hong Kong, early 2024. A video call where the CFO and colleagues were all deepfakes. HK$200M, fifteen transfers, five accounts.

Hong Kong police via FT; CFO Dive, May 2024
$893M

Losses in 2025 from complaints to the FBI where the victim reported an AI element: 22,364 complaints. Only counted when the victim noticed. A floor.

FBI IC3 2025 report, Apr 2026
$3.0B

Business email compromise losses in 2025: the “CEO says pay this invoice” fraud. Voice clones are the follow-up call that makes the email believable.

FBI IC3 2025 report, Apr 2026

Total US cybercrime losses reported to the FBI in 2025: $20.9 billion. Deepfakes did not invent fraud. They removed the tell.

Three numbers, each a floor. In early 2024 an employee of Arup, the engineering firm, in its Hong Kong office received a message about a confidential transaction, apparently from the chief financial officer in the UK. A video call followed. The CFO was on it; so were several colleagues. Every one of them was a deepfake. The employee made fifteen transfers totalling HK$200 million, about US$25 million, to five accounts, and discovered the fraud only on checking with head office. Hong Kong police described the case in February 2024 without naming the company; Arup confirmed to the Financial Times in May that “false voices and images were used.” The second number is from the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center report for 2025, published in April 2026: 22,364 complaints carried an AI descriptor, with $893 million in losses. That counts only cases where the victim knew AI was involved, which is why it is a floor; the same report puts distress scams using cloned relatives’ voices at over $5 million and deepfake job interviews at about $13 million. The third number is older and bigger: business email compromise, the “the CEO says pay this invoice now” fraud, cost $3.0 billion in 2025. Voice cloning is the follow-up phone call that turns a suspicious email into a believable instruction. Total losses reported to the FBI in 2025 crossed $20 billion for the first time. The point of the slide is not that deepfakes created a new crime. Impersonation fraud is old. What changed is that the tell, the thing that used to give it away, the voice that was not quite right, the face you could not see, is gone.

Sources (2)
  1. https://www.cfodive.com/news/scammers-siphon-25m-from-engineering-firm-arup-via-ai-deepfake-cfo/716501/
  2. https://www.secureworld.io/industry-news/ai-enabled-fraud-topped-893m-fbi
03 · Fakes, fraud and the law

Arup, step by step. Nothing technical would have stopped it.

1
A message from the CFO about a “confidential transaction”

Plausible sender, plausible urgency, plausible secrecy. The oldest opening in fraud.

2
A video call with the CFO and several colleagues

Faces and voices cloned from public footage. The employee’s doubts, the police said, were resolved by seeing familiar people.

3
Fifteen transfers to five Hong Kong accounts

HK$200 million over a short period. Each one individually ordinary-looking.

4
Discovery, by asking head office

The one control that worked was the oldest one: a human checked with another human, after the fact.

Where process stops it

Call-back. Any payment instruction by call or video is confirmed by calling a number you already had. Not one in the message.
Two-person rule. No single person can move money above a threshold, whoever is asking, however senior.
Secrecy is a red flag. “Confidential, don’t tell finance” is itself the signal. Write that down.

The deepfake was perfect. The process was absent. Fix the second thing; you cannot fix the first.

Walk the Arup case slowly, because every step is one your organisation could take tomorrow. It opened with a message, apparently from the UK-based CFO, about a confidential transaction. Nothing technical about that; it is the standard opening of invoice fraud, and the secrecy is part of the design, because a victim who is told not to discuss it will not discuss it. Then came the video call. The CFO was there. Colleagues were there. All were deepfakes assembled from publicly available footage; senior people at large firms have hours of conference video online, and a voice clone needs far less. According to the police account, the employee had initially been suspicious and the call resolved the suspicion, which is exactly what it was for. Fifteen transfers followed, to five accounts, totalling HK$200 million. Each on its own looked like an ordinary payment. The fraud was discovered when the employee checked with head office. Notice what worked and what did not. No detector was involved at any step; the faces and voices were good enough that a colleague who knew these people accepted them. The thing that eventually worked was a human asking another human through a channel the attacker did not control. The panel lists the controls that would have stopped it earlier, and none of them is new. Call-back: any payment instruction received by call or video is confirmed by phoning a number you already held, never one supplied in the message. The two-person rule: above a threshold no single person moves money, whoever asks and however senior. And secrecy as a red flag: “confidential, do not involve finance” is the signal, not a reason to comply. The deepfake was perfect. The process was absent. You can only fix one of those.

Sources (1)
  1. https://www.cfodive.com/news/scammers-siphon-25m-from-engineering-firm-arup-via-ai-deepfake-cfo/716501/
03 · Fakes, fraud and the law

Detection does not scale. Process does. Three controls.

Call-back on a known number

Any request to pay, change bank details or share credentials that arrives by call, video or message is confirmed by calling back on a number from your directory, not from the message. Takes two minutes. Beats every clone.

Two-person rule on money

Above a threshold, two named people approve. No exceptions for the CEO, the auditor or the “deal that closes tonight”. Part III’s finance agent had this rule; so should your people.

A code word, for people

Families and small teams agree a word that no voice clone can know. The FTC’s advice on family-emergency scams is the same: assume the panicked voice could be anyone, and verify. At Ferrari in 2024 an executive asked a deepfaked “CEO” which book he had recommended last week. The call ended.

WHY NOT JUST DETECT IT?
“We’ll buy a deepfake detector”
→
Detectors lag generators, give a probability, and nobody runs them on a live video call at 4pm. Use them for forensics after, not as the gate.
“Our people would notice”
→
Arup’s did not, and they knew the people. Familiarity is what the clone exploits. The control cannot depend on perception.

A clone copies a face and a voice. It cannot copy a shared secret or a number in your directory.

The instinct, when shown a convincing fake, is to want a better detector. Resist it. Detectors lag the generators they are built to catch, they return a probability rather than a verdict, and in practice nobody runs one on a live video call at four in the afternoon. They are useful afterwards, as forensics; they are a poor gate. The other instinct is “our people would notice.” Arup’s employee knew the people on the call, and that familiarity was precisely what the clone exploited. A control that depends on human perception of media is a control that is already beaten. What works is process, and three controls cover most of it. Call-back on a known number: any request that arrives by call, video or message to pay, change bank details or hand over credentials is confirmed by phoning a number already in your directory, never one supplied in the message. Two minutes, every time, and it defeats every clone because the attacker does not control your directory. The two-person rule on money: above a threshold, two named people approve, with no exception for seniority or urgency; Part III built this rule into a finance agent and it belongs in your finance team too. And a shared secret: a code word for families and small teams that no clone can know. The US Federal Trade Commission’s guidance on family-emergency scams makes the same point from the consumer side, that a cloned voice makes the panicked request more believable and the answer is to verify before paying. The best illustration is Ferrari in July 2024, as reported by Bloomberg: an executive took a call from a convincing clone of the chief executive’s voice, discussing a confidential acquisition and a currency hedge. He said, “Sorry, Benedetto, but I need to identify you,” and asked which book the CEO had recommended days earlier. The call ended. A clone copies a face and a voice. It cannot copy a secret.

Sources (3)
  1. https://fortune.com/2024/07/27/ferrari-deepfake-attempt-scammer-security-question-ceo-benedetto-vigna-cybersecurity-ai
  2. https://consumer.ftc.gov/scams/family-emergency-scams
  3. https://www.cfodive.com/news/scammers-siphon-25m-from-engineering-firm-arup-via-ai-deepfake-cfo/716501/
03 · Fakes, fraud and the law

Provenance and watermarks: helpful, not a solution.

What it isWhat it gives youWhat it does not
Content Credentials (C2PA)An open standard: a signed, tamper-evident record of how a file was made and edited, attached to the file. Adobe, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, camera makers and others are members.If the credential is present and verifies, you know who signed it and what tools touched it. Good for your own outputs and for sourcing from trusted suppliers.Most tools and platforms strip metadata; the standard itself says a stripped credential proves nothing either way. It is not a detector. Absence means absence of a label, not authenticity.
Invisible watermarks (e.g. SynthID)A pattern the generator hides in pixels, audio or word choice, readable by the vendor’s detector.Google says its text watermark survives light edits and cropping; a detector returns watermarked, not, or uncertain.Only finds that vendor’s outputs. Degrades under heavy rewriting, translation or re-encoding. Google: “not designed to directly stop motivated adversaries.”
Detectors (“is this AI?”)A classifier trained to spot generator artefacts.A probability, useful in forensics and in bulk screening of uploads.Lags new generators, false positives on real content, and a fraudster uses the newest model. Never the gate on a payment.

Use provenance to prove what you made. Never rely on its absence to prove what someone else did.

You will be sold three things under the heading “we can tell what is fake.” They are different, and only one of them is yours to control. Content Credentials, from the Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA), are an open standard: a cryptographically signed, tamper-evident record of how a file was created and edited, travelling with the file. Members include Adobe, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI and camera manufacturers. When a credential is present and verifies, you learn who signed it and which tools touched it. That is genuinely useful for the media you produce and for sourcing from suppliers who sign theirs. The limit is the one the C2PA’s own FAQ states: credentials can be separated from the file, most platforms and tools strip metadata on upload, and the absence of a credential proves nothing either way. It is not a detector. The standard is adding “durable” credentials that use watermarks and fingerprints to re-find a stripped manifest, which helps, and does not change the logic. Invisible watermarks, such as Google DeepMind’s SynthID, are patterns the generator hides in the pixels, the audio or, for text, the choice of words, and that the vendor’s detector can read. Google’s documentation says the text watermark survives light edits and cropping, returns a three-way answer (watermarked, not, uncertain), degrades under heavy rewriting or translation, and “is not designed to directly stop motivated adversaries.” It also only identifies that vendor’s outputs. Classifiers that answer “is this AI?” lag the generators, produce false positives on real content, and a fraudster uses the newest model. All three have a place: use provenance to prove what you made and to vet suppliers, and use detectors for forensics and bulk screening. None of them is the gate on a payment. That is the last slide.

Sources (2)
  1. https://c2pa.org/faq/
  2. https://ai.google.dev/responsible/docs/safeguards/synthid
03 · Fakes, fraud and the law

The law caught up. Checked October 2026.

Who it bindsWhat it requiresSince
EU AI Act, Article 50Providers and deployers in the EU market, wherever basedTell people they are talking to an AI. Mark generated audio, image, video and text in a machine-readable way. Disclose deepfakes to the audience on first exposure. Fines up to €15M or 3% of turnover.2 Aug 2026
US TAKE IT DOWN ActAnyone publishing; platforms hosting user contentFederal crime to publish non-consensual intimate images, including AI “digital forgeries”. Platforms must remove on valid request within 48 hours. FTC enforces; $53,088 per violation.Signed May 2025; platform duty 19 May 2026
US state lawsVaries by state49 states have at least one deepfake law; 48 cover intimate imagery, 33 cover election deepfakes. Most passed in 2024 or later. Several add consent and disclosure rules for voice and likeness.Rolling, 2019–2026
Existing law, unchangedEveryoneFraud, defamation, passing off, trade marks, privacy, advertising standards. A deepfake does not need a deepfake law to be illegal. Arup’s attackers committed plain fraud.Always

Concrete now: label what you generate, disclose deepfakes, and never make one of a real person without consent.

Two years ago this slide would have said “the law is behind.” It is not any more, and the obligations fall on ordinary businesses, not only on the model companies. The European Union’s AI Act, Article 50, applies from 2 August 2026. Providers of systems that interact with people must make sure people know they are dealing with an AI. Providers of generative systems must mark their audio, image, video and text outputs in a machine-readable way so they can be detected as generated; systems already on the market have until December 2026 for that. Deployers, which means you if you publish, must disclose deepfakes, defined as generated or manipulated content resembling real people, places or events that would falsely appear authentic, clearly and at the latest on first exposure, with an exception for evidently artistic or satirical work. Generated text published to inform the public on matters of public interest must be labelled unless a human has editorial responsibility. Fines run to €15 million or 3% of worldwide turnover. In the United States the TAKE IT DOWN Act was signed in May 2025. It makes it a federal crime to publish, or threaten to publish, intimate images of a person without consent, explicitly including AI-made “digital forgeries”, and from 19 May 2026 it requires platforms hosting user content to remove such material within 48 hours of a valid request, enforced by the Federal Trade Commission at $53,088 per violation. Beneath the federal law, Ballotpedia counted 49 states with at least one deepfake statute by July 2026, 48 on intimate imagery and 33 on election deepfakes, most passed since 2024. And the old law never went away: fraud, defamation, passing off, trade marks, privacy and advertising rules all apply. Arup’s attackers did not need a deepfake statute to be criminals.

Sources (4)
  1. https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/transparency-obligations-under-article-50-ai-act
  2. https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/resources/complying-take-it-down-act
  3. https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20260615-the-take-it-down-act-goes-live
  4. https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/30/49-states-have-passed-at-least-one-deepfake-law-since-2019/
03 · Fakes, fraud and the law

When to say “AI-made”. One rule, and the brand risk.

REALISTIC

Label it, visibly

A realistic image, voice or video that depicts a real person, place or event, or could be mistaken for a record of one. In the EU this is the law; on YouTube it is a required disclosure; everywhere it is the thing that becomes a scandal.

Label it, plainly

Realistic but invented: a stock-style scene, a synthetic presenter, a dubbed voice. Not a deepfake of anyone. Disclose because a customer who finds out later feels tricked, and because a label costs nothing.

OBVIOUSLY NOT

Consent first, then label

A real person’s face or voice, obviously stylised. Consent in writing is the gate; the label is the courtesy. Dubbing your own presenter counts.

Usually no label needed

Obviously synthetic or assistive: an illustration, an icon, alt-text, captions, a cleaned-up background, a script drafted by a model and edited by a person. YouTube and the EU both exempt this.

A REAL PERSON, PLACE OR EVENT
INVENTED

Brand rule: disclose anything a customer would be annoyed to discover. Coca-Cola owned its AI ads and survived.

Disclosure is now partly law and partly brand judgement, and a single rule covers both: label anything a customer would be annoyed to discover. The grid makes it operational. Top left is the serious quadrant: realistic media that depicts a real person, place or event, or could be mistaken for a record of one. In the EU this is a deepfake under Article 50 and must be disclosed visibly on first exposure. On YouTube, since March 2024, creators must declare when a video makes a real person appear to say or do something they did not, alters footage of a real event or place, or generates a realistic scene that did not occur; the label appears in the description, and on the video itself for sensitive topics such as health, news, elections and finance, and YouTube says it will penalise creators who consistently fail to disclose. Top right is realistic but invented: a stock-style scene, a synthetic presenter, a dubbed voice that is nobody’s. Nobody is harmed, and the honest move is still a plain label, because a customer who finds out later feels tricked and the label costs nothing. Bottom left is a real person, obviously stylised: written consent is the gate and the label is a courtesy, and dubbing your own presenter belongs here. Bottom right is the exempt zone, which both YouTube and the EU recognise: illustrations, icons, alt-text, captions, background clean-up, and text that a person edited and takes responsibility for. The brand point: Coca-Cola’s AI holiday advertising drew sustained criticism two years running and the company stood by it openly, which is survivable. The campaigns that hide the method and are found out are the ones that become the case study.

Sources (3)
  1. https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/youtube-says-will-require-creators-label-ai-content-rcna143937
  2. https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/transparency-obligations-under-article-50-ai-act
  3. https://www.eweek.com/news/coca-cola-ai-ads/
Discussion · 03

Could Arup happen here, this quarter?

  1. If your CFO phoned accounts at 4.55pm asking for an urgent transfer, what would actually happen?
  2. Whose face and voice from your organisation are online for ten minutes or more? That is the clone list.
  3. Which of your bank-detail changes last year were confirmed by a call-back on a known number? All of them, or some?
  4. What generated media did you publish into the EU since August 2026, and was it labelled?

The first question is the one to ask out loud. In most rooms, the honest answer is “the transfer would happen.” That is the Monday action.

04

Physical AI

A robot is an agent with kinematics. Same six parts as Part III, plus physics and a battery. The bottleneck moved from “can it talk” to “can it work a shift”.

Bodies, not keynotes

Section four expands Part I’s four slides on physical AI. The claim then was “chat was the trailer; the feature is a body that shows up for an 8-hour shift.” Two years on, we can check that against deployments rather than keynotes.

04 · Physical AI

A robot is an agent with kinematics. Six parts, plus two.

Goal + instructions

“Move totes from this conveyor to that rack.” Written by you. Narrow, for now.

Model

Looks at camera frames and decides the next motion. Increasingly one model for seeing, planning and moving (a “vision-language-action” model).

Tools → actuators

The hands are literal: motors, grippers, wheels or legs. Run by control code at hundreds of updates a second, not by the model.

Knowledge + context

A map of the site, the shape of a tote, what “fragile” means. Mostly learned from demonstrations and simulation.

Memory / state

Where am I, what am I holding, what did I just drop. Short, and critical.

Guardrails

Speed and force limits, people-detection stops, fenced zones, an emergency stop. Standards, not prompts: ISO 10218 (2025 edition).

+ Physics

Gravity, friction, a wet floor, a box that is heavier than it looks. No retry button. A wrong token is deleted; a dropped crate is not.

+ A battery

Atlas quotes four hours, hot-swapped in three minutes. A shift is eight. Energy, heat and wear are the engineering, not the AI.

Same questions as Part III: what is it allowed to touch, and who is liable when it drops the crate?

Part I offered one line: a robot is an agent with kinematics. Part III then gave you the six parts of an agent, only one of which is the AI. Put them together and physical AI stops being mysterious. The goal and instructions are written by you and, today, are narrow: move these totes to that rack. The model looks at camera frames and decides the next motion; the trend through 2025 and 2026 is towards a single model that sees, plans and moves, which the field calls a vision-language-action model, and this is where Google DeepMind’s Gemini Robotics and Nvidia’s GR00T models sit. The tools are literal hands: motors, grippers, wheels or legs, driven by control code running hundreds of times a second. The model does not twitch the motors any more than Part III’s model ran the SQL; it asks, and code does. Knowledge is a map, the shape of a tote, what “fragile” implies, mostly learned from human demonstrations and simulation. Memory is short and critical: where am I, what am I holding, what did I just drop. Guardrails are the part that changes character. In software they were permissions and spend caps. In a robot they are speed and force limits, people-detection stops, fenced zones and an emergency stop, and they are written into safety standards rather than prompts; the 2025 edition of ISO 10218 folded the collaborative-robot rules of ISO/TS 15066 into the main industrial-robot standard and made its functional-safety requirements explicit. Then the two additions. Physics: gravity, friction, a wet floor, a box heavier than it looks, and no retry button, because a wrong token is deleted and a dropped crate is not. And a battery: Boston Dynamics quotes four hours for the new Atlas, hot-swappable in three minutes, and a shift is eight. Energy, heat and wear are the engineering. They are not the AI, and they are most of the cost.

Sources (2)
  1. https://www.controldesign.com/industry-news/news/55268769/iso-10218-update-makes-functional-safety-requirements-more-explicit
  2. https://www.automate.org/robotics/industry-insights/boston-dynamics-to-begin-production-on-redesigned-atlas-humanoid-in-2026
04 · Physical AI

The bottleneck moved. Can it work a shift?

1
Talk

Describe the scene, take an instruction. Solved by Part IV’s models. Impressive on stage.

Status, Oct 2026
Done
2
See and navigate

Find the tote, avoid the person, cross the floor. Wheeled robots have done this at scale for a decade.

Status, Oct 2026
Done, on wheels
3
Grasp

Pick one known object, reliably. Thin-walled parts, deformable bags and reflective packaging are each a separate problem.

Status, Oct 2026
Mostly, per object
4
Manipulate for a shift

Thousands of picks, hours on end, without a human fixing a jam every twenty minutes. The number vendors do not publish is this one.

Status, Oct 2026
Pilots
5
Open-ended

A new task, a new place, nobody watching. Musk, Oct 2026: the AI “needs substantial work” before open-ended tasks.

Status, Oct 2026
Not yet
← solved, boring, where the money is todaywhere the keynotes are →

Part I said the bottleneck had moved from “can it talk” to “can it manipulate for a shift without a babysitter, a lawsuit or a dead battery.” The ladder is a teaching device, not an industry standard, but it sorts the claims. Talking is done; the language models from Part IV can describe a scene, answer questions and take instructions, and a humanoid doing this on stage is a chatbot with legs. Seeing and navigating is done, on wheels: Amazon’s fleet, the subject of a later slide, has been crossing warehouse floors around people for a decade. Grasping is mostly solved, one object class at a time. A known rigid box is routine. Thin-walled parts, floppy bags and reflective packaging are each their own research problem, which is why Figure makes a point of showing thin-walled parts at BMW. The fourth rung is where the industry actually is. Manipulating for a shift means thousands of picks over hours without a person clearing a jam every twenty minutes, and the figure that would tell you whether it works, the mean time between a human intervention, is the one vendors do not publish. What they publish instead is cumulative counts: Agility’s 100,000 totes at one site, Figure’s 30,000 cars “contributed to.” Those are real and they are not the same thing. The top rung, an unfamiliar task in an unfamiliar place with nobody watching, is where the keynotes live and nobody is. Elon Musk, announcing the start of Optimus production on 21 October 2026, said the AI “needs substantial work” before the robot can handle open-ended tasks, and that the design still needs changes for safety, reliability and durability. Take vendors at their word when they are being modest.

Sources (3)
  1. https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/21/tesla-stars-optimus-robot-production-in-california-as-profit-falls-43/
  2. https://www.figure.ai/news/f-03-at-bmw
  3. https://gxo.com/news_article/gxo-and-agility-robotics-expand-partnership-to-accelerate-deployment-of-humanoids-in-u-s-operations/
04 · Physical AI

The bodies, not the keynotes. Checked October 2026.

The betHonest status, October 2026
Tesla OptimusScale and vertical integration“Early production” of production-quality units began at Fremont, 21 Oct 2026. Musk: design still needs safety and reliability changes; AI not ready for open-ended tasks. 20,000/week by end-2027 is a target. The 2024 “We, Robot” bartenders were human-assisted.
FigureFactory and warehouse labour, nowFigure 02 worked BMW’s Spartanburg line in 2025; Figure says it contributed to 30,000 cars. Figure 03 moved in for logistics in June 2026. Robot count and commercial terms undisclosed.
Boston Dynamics AtlasThe body that already worksProduct version shown at CES, Jan 2026; production started. All 2026 units go to Hyundai’s robotics centre and Google DeepMind. Other customers from early 2027. 30 kg payload, 4 h battery, fenceless people-detection.
Agility DigitOne job: totesPaid robots-as-a-service with GXO since June 2024. 100,000+ totes moved at one Georgia site; 65,000+ hours across programmes. Two more GXO sites from early 2027. The most boring entry. That is the compliment.
UnitreePriceG1 humanoid from $13,500. 5,215 humanoids sold in 2025, about 70% to universities and labs. Shanghai IPO, Aug 2026. US import restrictions on some foreign robots since July 2026.
1X NEOHomes$20,000 or $499/month. Factory opened in California, May 2026; home deliveries through 2026. For chores it cannot do, a 1X teleoperator drives it remotely, by appointment.
Apptronik ApolloFactory logisticsOver $935M raised at about $5B valuation. Mercedes pilots in Berlin and Hungary, trained by teleoperation. No public fleet expansion yet.
NvidiaThe Android of robotsSells no robots. Isaac platform, GR00T 1.7 models, Jetson Thor computer (inside NEO and others), simulation and synthetic data. GTC Berlin, Oct 2026: a dozen-plus makers on it.

Company statements, as published; cumulative counts, not reliability figures. Re-check before you quote. Payload figures converted from vendor units.

This is the deck’s one slide of names, and it carries its date because every row will be stale within months. Each entry is what the company itself has said, read in October 2026, and the thing to notice is the difference between a cumulative count and a reliability figure; nobody on this board publishes the second. Tesla began what it calls early production of production-quality Optimus units at Fremont on 21 October 2026, with Musk saying in the same breath that the design still needs safety, reliability and durability changes and that the AI needs substantial work before open-ended tasks; 20,000 a week by the end of 2027 is a stated target. The 2024 “We, Robot” event, where Optimus units served drinks, turned out to be human-assisted, as a Tesla engineer later acknowledged. Figure put Figure 02 on BMW’s Spartanburg line in 2025 and says it contributed to the assembly of 30,000 cars; Figure 03 arrived for logistics in June 2026. Numbers of robots and terms are not disclosed. Boston Dynamics showed the product version of the electric Atlas at CES in January 2026 and started production; all 2026 units go to Hyundai’s robotics centre and Google DeepMind, with other customers from early 2027. Agility is the most instructive row: a paid robots-as-a-service contract with GXO since June 2024, over 100,000 totes moved at one Georgia site, 65,000 hours across programmes, and two more sites from early 2027. Unitree sells on price, 5,215 humanoids in 2025 mostly to labs, and listed in Shanghai in August 2026. 1X ships NEO to homes at $20,000, with chores it cannot do handled by a remote human on request. Apptronik has raised over $935 million and is in pilots at Mercedes. Nvidia sells none of this and supplies the brain, the simulator and the data to most of it.

Sources (10)
  1. https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/21/tesla-stars-optimus-robot-production-in-california-as-profit-falls-43/
  2. https://www.axios.com/2024/10/17/elon-musk-tesla-optimus-humanoid-robot
  3. https://www.figure.ai/news/f-03-at-bmw
  4. https://www.automate.org/robotics/industry-insights/boston-dynamics-to-begin-production-on-redesigned-atlas-humanoid-in-2026
  5. https://gxo.com/news_article/gxo-and-agility-robotics-expand-partnership-to-accelerate-deployment-of-humanoids-in-u-s-operations/
  6. https://www.therobotreport.com/what-does-unitree-robotics-ipo-mean-for-humanoid-industry/
  7. https://www.travteks.com/blog/1x-neo-home-delivery/
  8. https://humanoidanalytics.com/2026/06/12/apptroniks-935-million-series-a-raises-the-stakes-for-apollo/
  9. https://www.carscoops.com/2025/03/mercedes-humanoid-robots/
  10. https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-advances-isaac-platform-for-general-purpose-robotics-with-new-reference-humanoid-frameworks-simulation-pipelines-and-data
04 · Physical AI

Where it lands first: fenced floors now, homes last.

1
Fixed arms and wheeled carts

Welding, painting, moving shelves. A million robots at Amazon. Fenced, repetitive, measured. Where the money has been for years.

Now, at scale
2
Humanoids in a warehouse corner

One job, one site, a human nearby: totes to a conveyor (Agility at GXO), parts to a line (Figure at BMW). Paid pilots and first contracts.

Now, small
3
Teleop + autonomy hybrids

The robot does what it can; a remote person takes the hard 10%. How Mercedes trained Apollo, how 1X ships NEO. Honest when disclosed.

Now, growing
4
Care, hospitals, last mile

Unstructured, people everywhere, high consequence. Expect assistive devices and delivery carts long before a humanoid nurse.

Late decade
5
Homes

Part I: your kitchen is a harder environment than a Tesla line. $20k and a remote pilot is where it starts. Beware the roommate pitch.

Last, and messiest

The test for any robot pitch: how constrained, how repetitive, and what happens when it fails?

Where physical AI lands follows one variable: how constrained the environment is. The most constrained end has been automated for decades. Fixed arms weld and paint; wheeled drive units move shelves; the work is repetitive, fenced and measured, and Amazon alone passed one million deployed robots in July 2025. This is where the money has been and still is, and almost none of it is humanoid. Next come humanoids in a warehouse corner: one job, one site, a human nearby. Agility’s Digit moves totes onto a conveyor at a GXO site in Georgia under a paid contract; Figure’s robots move parts at BMW’s Spartanburg plant. These are real and small, and they are chosen precisely because the task is narrow and the floor is flat. Alongside them is the hybrid, which is less discussed and more honest: the robot does what it can and a remote human takes over the hard ten percent. That is how Mercedes trained Apollo in Berlin, by teleoperation, and how 1X ships NEO, with a remote 1X operator for chores it does not know. Teleoperation is not cheating; it is how the training data gets made and how the service stays reliable while autonomy improves. It is only a problem when it is hidden, as it was at Tesla’s 2024 event. Then the hard places: care, hospitals, the last mile. Unstructured, full of people, high consequence. Expect assistive devices and delivery carts long before a humanoid nurse. And homes last, as Part I said: your kitchen is a harder environment than a car plant. The first home humanoid costs $20,000 and comes with a remote pilot. The test for any robot pitch is on the slide: how constrained is the environment, how repetitive is the task, and what happens when it fails?

Sources (5)
  1. https://www.eweek.com/news/amazon-robots-automation-jobs/
  2. https://gxo.com/news_article/gxo-and-agility-robotics-expand-partnership-to-accelerate-deployment-of-humanoids-in-u-s-operations/
  3. https://www.figure.ai/news/f-03-at-bmw
  4. https://www.carscoops.com/2025/03/mercedes-humanoid-robots/
  5. https://www.travteks.com/blog/1x-neo-home-delivery/
04 · Physical AI

Autonomy you already use: what “it works” looks like.

1M

Robots deployed by Amazon across 300+ sites, July 2025. Mostly wheeled drive units and arms, behind fences, on flat floors.

Amazon, via eWeek, Jul 2025
500k

Paid Waymo robotaxi rides per week, from 50,000 in May 2024. About 4,000 vehicles in 15 US cities, Sept 2026.

Waymo via TechCrunch, Mar & Sept 2026
95%

Fewer serious-injury crashes than human drivers on the same roads, over 271M rider-only miles through June 2026. Waymo’s own data; retrospective, and it says so.

Waymo Safety Impact, data to Jun 2026

Ten years, one city at a time, fenced floors, mapped streets. That is working autonomy. Humanoids are at year two.

Before judging humanoids, look at the autonomy that already works, because it shows what the finish line looks like and how long the race is. Amazon announced its one-millionth deployed robot in July 2025, across more than 300 facilities. Nearly all are wheeled drive units and fixed arms, operating behind fences or in marked zones, on flat floors, doing the same motion thousands of times a day; the company also announced a model to route them more efficiently. It took a decade and a half from the Kiva acquisition to get there. Waymo is the same story on the street. Paid robotaxi rides went from about 50,000 a week in May 2024 to about 500,000 a week by March 2026, on a fleet that TechCrunch put at roughly 4,000 vehicles in 15 US cities by September 2026. The safety figures are Waymo’s own, and the company is careful about them: over 271 million rider-only miles through June 2026, it reports 95% fewer serious-injury crashes, 82% fewer airbag-deployment crashes and 93% fewer pedestrian injury crashes than the human benchmark on the same surface streets, while noting that retrospective results do not by themselves prove a system is “safe enough,” and regulators are investigating incidents including vehicles passing stopped school buses. Read both together. Working autonomy is a decade of one city at a time, mapped streets, fenced floors and a narrow task, with a remote human available. It is not a keynote and it is not general. Humanoids, by that measure, are at about year two, and the companies on the board that behave like Amazon and Waymo, one site, one job, published counts, are the ones to take seriously.

Sources (3)
  1. https://www.eweek.com/news/amazon-robots-automation-jobs/
  2. https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/24/waymo-is-scaling-fast-heres-what-the-fleet-data-shows/
  3. https://waymo.com/safety/impact/
04 · Physical AI

Same questions as a software agent. Heavier answers.

The model judges

  • What is in front of it and how to grasp it
  • Which motion next
  • When to stop and ask: dropped, stuck, unsure

Code and physics do

  • Motor control, balance, force limits
  • People-detection stops, zone fences
  • Logging every action and every intervention

A human owns

  • The safety case and the standard (ISO 10218)
  • Teleop takeovers, and disclosing them
  • Liability when it drops the crate: the operator, not the robot
What goes wrong → the guardrail
A demo looks autonomous and is not
→
Ask: who was on the controller? How many interventions per hour? If they will not say, you have your answer.
The robot does a thing nobody permitted
→
Permissions are physical: speed, force and zone limits in the controller, not in the prompt. Replit, with legs.
“Autonomous systems” on a procurement list
→
They already are: defence and logistics buy them now. Treat it soberly: the same questions apply, and the answers are a matter of law and policy, not a demo reel.

Everything Part III said about leashes applies to a robot, with the volume turned up. The model judges what is in front of it, how to grasp it, which motion comes next and when to stop and ask, because it has dropped something, is stuck, or is unsure. Code and physics do the rest: motor control and balance at hundreds of updates a second, force and speed limits, people-detection stops and zone fences, and a log of every action and every human intervention. A human owns the safety case, written against a standard; in industrial settings that is ISO 10218, whose 2025 edition absorbed the collaborative-robot technical specification ISO/TS 15066 and added functional-safety and cybersecurity requirements. Mention is enough here; the point is that the leash on a robot is a document an engineer signs, not a paragraph in a prompt. A human also owns the teleoperation takeovers, and disclosing them. And a human, or rather an organisation, owns the liability when the crate is dropped: the operator, not the robot, exactly as Air Canada learned about its chatbot in Part III. The three failure rows follow. A demo that looks autonomous and is not: ask who was on the controller and how many interventions per hour; a vendor who will not answer has answered. A robot doing something nobody permitted: the permission lives in the controller’s limits, not in the instruction, which is Replit with legs. And the line Part I put bluntly, that war and logistics do not wait for your feelings. Autonomous systems are a procurement category in defence and logistics today, and the sober version of that observation is that the same questions apply there, what is it allowed to touch and who is accountable when it fails, and that the answers are being set by law and policy now, not by demo reels. It belongs in the room as a fact, not a thrill.

Sources (2)
  1. https://www.controldesign.com/industry-news/news/55268769/iso-10218-update-makes-functional-safety-requirements-more-explicit
  2. https://www.axios.com/2024/10/17/elon-musk-tesla-optimus-humanoid-robot
04 · Physical AI

Three stories everyone in this room should know.

Arup, 2024

Everyone on the call was fake.

An employee in Hong Kong joined a video call with the CFO and colleagues, all deepfaked from public footage, and sent fifteen transfers worth about US$25 million. Discovered by checking with head office. Arup confirmed “false voices and images were used.”

Call back on a known number. Two people on money. Secrecy is the red flag.
Bartz v. Anthropic, 2025–26

Bought: fair use. Pirated: $1.5 billion.

A US judge ruled that training on lawfully bought books was fair use, and that downloading pirated copies was not. Anthropic settled the pirated-books class for $1.5 billion; final approval July 2026, roughly 482,000 works.

Where the training data came from is the legal question. Ask your vendor.
Tesla “We, Robot”, 2024

The bartenders had a pilot.

Optimus units served drinks and chatted with guests. Afterwards a Tesla engineer acknowledged they were “human assisted to some extent.” Two years on, Tesla says the AI still needs substantial work for open-ended tasks.

Ask who was on the controller. Honest teleop is fine. Hidden teleop is the tell.

Three stories, one from each half of the deck and one that joins them. Arup, in early 2024, is the deepfake story that should end every “our people would notice” conversation. An employee in the Hong Kong office joined a video call in which the chief financial officer and several colleagues were all synthetic, built from footage any large firm has online, and made fifteen transfers totalling about US$25 million to five accounts. The fraud was discovered the old way, by asking head office. Arup confirmed to the Financial Times that false voices and images were used. The lesson is process: call back on a known number, two people on money, and treat secrecy as the signal. Bartz v. Anthropic is the copyright story with a price on it. In June 2025 Judge Alsup ruled that training on books Anthropic had bought and scanned was fair use, and that downloading millions of pirated copies was not. The pirated-copies class, about 482,000 works, settled for $1.5 billion, approved finally in July 2026. The lesson for a buyer of AI tools is that where the training data came from is the live legal question, and it is a fair one to put to a vendor. Tesla’s “We, Robot” event in October 2024 is the physical-AI story. Optimus units served drinks and chatted. Afterwards an Optimus engineer acknowledged on X that they were “human assisted to some extent.” Two years later, starting production, Tesla says the AI still needs substantial work before open-ended tasks. Teleoperation is not the sin; Mercedes and 1X disclose theirs. Concealing it is. The question that joins all three stories is the one this series keeps asking: who, or what, actually did this, and who checked?

Sources (5)
  1. https://www.cfodive.com/news/scammers-siphon-25m-from-engineering-firm-arup-via-ai-deepfake-cfo/716501/
  2. https://www.authorsalliance.org/2025/09/28/bartz-v-anthropic-settlement-gets-preliminary-approval-key-takeaways/
  3. https://www.authorsalliance.org/2026/07/21/bartz-v-anthropic-settlement-receives-final-approval/
  4. https://www.axios.com/2024/10/17/elon-musk-tesla-optimus-humanoid-robot
  5. https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/21/tesla-stars-optimus-robot-production-in-california-as-profit-falls-43/
Discussion · 04

Which job near this room gets a robot first?

  1. Which task on your site is repetitive, fenced and already measured? That is the only kind worth a pitch today.
  2. Would you accept a robot with a remote human pilot for ten percent of the work? What must be disclosed?
  3. Who signs the safety case, and who is liable when it drops the crate? Does the contract say?
  4. Part I asked: is “human-shaped” a product requirement or a branding requirement? Your answer now?

Part I asked the fourth question in 2024. The honest 2026 answer is still that the paid deployments are wheels and arms, and the humanoids are in warehouse corners with a human nearby.

05

Use it Monday

A disclosure rule, three fraud controls, and one test for every robot pitch. None of it needs a budget. All of it needs writing down.

Write it down

Section five is five things that cost nothing and that a committee cannot reasonably object to. The fraud controls are the ones to do first; they protect you from the half of this deck that is already being used against you.

To steal

Five things to write down on Monday.

01
A disclosure rule, one paragraph.

Label anything a customer would be annoyed to discover. Real faces and voices need written consent. Use the quadrant on slide 20. Put it in the brand guide; attach credentials to what you publish.

02
Call-back on a known number.

Every payment instruction, bank-detail change or credential request that arrives by call, video or message is confirmed by phoning a number already in your directory. No exceptions for seniority.

03
Two people on money.

Above a threshold you choose, two named people approve. Write the threshold down. “Confidential, don’t involve finance” is the trigger to involve finance.

04
A code word.

For the leadership team and for your own family. A clone copies a voice. It cannot copy a word only you two know. Ferrari’s executive asked about a book; it worked.

05
The constrained-environment test.

For any robot pitch: how constrained is the environment, how repetitive is the task, what happens when it fails, and who was on the controller in the demo? No answers, no pilot.

The media half is already being used against you. The robot half is not ready for you. Both reward the same thing: a process you wrote down.

Five things, none of which needs a budget. A disclosure rule in one paragraph: label anything a customer would be annoyed to discover, require written consent for any real face or voice, use the quadrant from section three to decide, put it in the brand guide and attach content credentials to what you publish, because from August 2026 the EU requires most of this anyway. Call-back on a known number: every instruction to pay, to change bank details or to share credentials that arrives by call, video or message is confirmed by phoning a number already in your directory, never one supplied in the message, with no exception for seniority or urgency. Two people on money: above a threshold you choose and write down, two named people approve, and the phrase “confidential, do not involve finance” is the trigger to involve finance. A code word: for the leadership team and, separately, for your own family, because the FBI’s 2025 figures include millions lost to cloned relatives in distress; a clone copies a voice and cannot copy a shared secret, as the Ferrari executive demonstrated with a question about a book. And the constrained-environment test for any robot pitch: how constrained is the environment, how repetitive is the task, what happens when it fails, and who was on the controller in the demo. A vendor who cannot answer those four has told you where they are on the ladder. The closing line is the whole deck. The generative-media half is already in use, by your marketing team and by the people trying to defraud it. The physical-AI half is mostly not ready for an ordinary business yet. Both reward exactly the same thing, which is a process someone wrote down.

Sources (3)
  1. https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/faqs/transparency-obligations-under-article-50-ai-act
  2. https://fortune.com/2024/07/27/ferrari-deepfake-attempt-scammer-security-question-ceo-benedetto-vigna-cybersecurity-ai
  3. https://www.secureworld.io/industry-news/ai-enabled-fraud-topped-893m-fbi
Beyond the chat box.
Same trick. Heavier stakes.

A model that guesses the next pixel, the next sound, the next motion. Code that supplies the facts and the limits. A human who calls back, signs off, and owns the crate.

If it would cost you money when it is wrong, ask what checks it.

Appendix · For the nerds

Diffusion, with the three details the main deck skipped.

Latent, not pixel

Most products do not diffuse pixels. An encoder first compresses the image into a much smaller “latent” grid; diffusion runs there, and a decoder expands the result. That is why it is fast enough to be a product, and why fine text suffers: the compression throws detail away.

Conditioning + guidance

Your caption is turned into an embedding (Part IV: numbers that mean something) and fed into every denoising step. “Guidance” runs the model with and without the caption and pushes the result towards the captioned version. More guidance: more literal, less varied, more artefacts.

Why it cannot spell or count

The model learns the statistics of what images look like, including what text and hands look like, in a compressed space, from captions that rarely say “exactly four wheels.” Nothing in the loop enforces a constraint. Newer models bolt on text-rendering tricks; the structure is unchanged.

# one diffusion step, in spirit (not runnable)
x = random_noise(latent_shape)            # start from static
for t in reversed(range(T)):               # T ≈ 20–50 steps
    eps_c = model(x, t, caption_emb)       # predicted noise, with caption
    eps_u = model(x, t, None)              # predicted noise, without
    eps   = eps_u + g * (eps_c - eps_u)    # guidance scale g
    x     = step_back(x, eps, t)           # remove a little noise
image = decoder(x)                         # latent → pixels

Three details for the curious. First, most products do not run diffusion on pixels at all. An encoder compresses the image into a much smaller latent grid, diffusion runs in that compressed space, and a decoder expands the result back to pixels. This is what made the method cheap enough to be a product rather than a paper, and it is part of why fine text and small details suffer: the compression discards exactly the detail that spelling needs. Second, conditioning and guidance. Your caption is converted into an embedding, the same kind of meaningful numbers Part IV described, and fed into every denoising step. “Classifier-free guidance” runs the model twice at each step, once with the caption and once without, and pushes the prediction in the direction the caption moved it. A higher guidance scale produces more literal, less varied images and, past a point, more artefacts; it is the dial behind many products’ “prompt adherence” sliders. Third, why it cannot spell or count. The model learns the statistics of what images look like, including what text and hands tend to look like, in a compressed space, from captions that almost never say “exactly four wheels.” Nothing in the loop enforces a constraint; it only makes things more probable. Newer models add text-rendering tricks and planning passes and get much better, and the structure is unchanged, which is why the deck treated these as properties rather than bugs. The pseudo-code shows one sampling loop in spirit. Audio and video run the same loop over spectrogram or frame latents; the newer “flow-matching” family changes the mathematics of the step-back, not the picture. The original paper is Ho, Jain and Abbeel, 2020.

Sources (1)
  1. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.11239v1